Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast in Agricultural Decision-making among Smallholder Farmers in Semi-Arid Southeastern Kenya

Abstract

Various adaptation strategies to climate variability have been used over the years with little attention given to the vital role played by seasonal climate forecast (SCF) in providing information on the expected climatic conditions to adapt to. This study sought to assess the level of use and constraints in using seasonal climate forecast in agricultural decisionmaking by smallholder farmers in semi-arid Voi sun-County. SCF for October-November-December (OND) 2015 was obtained from Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS) and compared to observed climatic conditions for the season. Climatic data of the study area for the period 1985-2014 was obtained from Voi Meteorological station and used to calculate the OND mean rainfall for the study area. Questionnaires were administered to 204 household heads randomly selected from two Locations and interview schedule administered to five purposively selected Key Informants. Primary data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistics and Pearson Correlation test. The study showed that 41.7% of smallholder farmers used OND 2015 SCF in agricultural decision-making. Key constraints to use of seasonal climate forecast were lack of trust in the forecasts and inadequate extension support. The household’s socio-economic characteristics that were found to have a significant relationship with use of SCF were education level and reason for farming. The study concludes that although OND 2015 SCF was accurate, there was poor use of the forecast in agricultural decision-making mainly due to lack of trust on the information and low level of training on its use. The study recommends enhancement of awareness on importance of SCF information and training on its use in agricultural decision-making especially in semi-arid areas